Potential Tropical Storm Nadine’s Chances of Forming

Chances that an area of low pressure in the Atlantic Ocean will strengthen into a tropical depression this week are increasing.
There are no active named storm systems brewing as of Tuesday morning, but meteorologists are warning that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is far from over. The normal season runs through November 30, and conditions are still favorable for storm formation. The next named storm will be Nadine.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) was monitoring a system last week that showed a chance at forming into Nadine, but strong winds near Bermuda ripped apart the storm before it had a chance to strengthen. Now, the NHC is monitoring an area of low pressure in the central Atlantic named AL94 that could become the next named storm.
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On Monday, the system had a 60 percent chance of developing in the next seven days, and a 10 percent chance of developing in the next 48 hours. By Tuesday morning, the chances of formation in the next 48 hours jumped to 30 percent.
“An area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms,” the most recent NHC update said. “This system is forecast to move generally westward, and environmental conditions could become more conducive for gradual development by the middle to latter part of this week.
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“A tropical depression could form as the system begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward Islands late this week.”
Lead hurricane forecaster Alex DaSilva told Newsweek that AccuWeather is “highly confident that something is going to develop” out of the system, and that the meteorological team has created a path tracker for the storm, which they’re designating a tropical rainstorm. AccuWeather is forecasting that the system will strengthen into Tropical Storm Nadine in the coming days.
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“We feel that the environmental conditions are going to become a little more favorable as it approaches the islands,” DaSilva said. “That’s why you see the chances from the National Hurricane Center have been ticking upward over the last 24 to 36 hours.”
DaSilva went on to say that it’s doubtful the storm will have direct impact on the U.S.
If a tropical storm were to form, it would likely pass through Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti and then Jamaica, meaning the system would stay south of Florida, AccuWeather’s forecasts said.
The NHC also is monitoring another concerning area in the western Caribbean. That system has a lower chance of forming, with no chance in the next 48 hours and a 30 percent chance in the next seven days.
“A broad area of low pressure could develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter portions of this week,” the most recent update for that system said. “Some gradual development is possible thereafter if the system stays over water while it moves slowly west-northwestward towards northern Central America. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of Central America later this week.”